Analysts believe that international oil prices will usher in the fall from August to September
On August 8, international oil prices fell to $115.20 per barrel. After setting a record high of $147.27/barrel on July 11 this year, international oil prices fell by 22% in less than a month.
Impact of falling oil prices affecting petrochemical downstream products Given the various uncertain or uncertain factors supporting the rise in oil prices, analysts believe that the possibility of a rebound in oil prices is still not ruled out and the long-term oil price trend remains bullish. However, there is a relatively unanimous view that international oil prices will usher in a downturn from August to September, mainly due to the fact that the winter heating oil storage period is still early after the peak of summer oil use. At this stage, international oil inventories will increase, if this year's hurricane Activities are not so bad, and oil prices will fall.
The petrochemical industry uses petroleum as raw material to produce various chemical products. With oil prices falling, it is easier for people to see the positive side of the petrochemical industry. The reduction in the purchase price of crude oil will undoubtedly reduce the cost of oil refining and increase the efficiency of enterprises. However, the decline in oil prices does not only bring this to the petrochemical industry. The subsequent decline in the price of petrochemical downstream products may be greater than the drop in oil prices, and the impact will be even more profound.
After the oil price plummeted on August 4, the MSCI Energy Index fell 0.3% that night, a 21% drop from the historic high in May. The chemical index fell 1.2%, a 22% drop from the highest point in history. Shares of ExxonMobil, the largest petrochemical company in the United States, fell 3.9%.
Asian prices of organic raw materials and domestic plastics have fallen Crude oil prices have been a trend indicator for petrochemical products. The fall in oil prices will inevitably bring down the price of petrochemical products. Before mid-July, as the price of crude oil continued to rise, many downstream petrochemical products went out of record with crude oil. Take paraxylene as an example. In June of this year, the spot price of p-xylene exceeded the record of 1,600 U.S. dollars per ton set in 2006, and the subsequent contract prices of July and August contracted a record price of 1,750 U.S. dollars per ton. However, with the decline of international crude oil prices, paraxylene also has a significant correction. On July 25th, the closing price of this commodity in the Asian market was already lower than US$1,500/ton, and it dropped to US$1485 to US$1,495/ton.
The same is true for plastics. On August 5, the domestic plastic price index fell by 16.41 points over the previous trading day. The price of plastic raw materials per ton, polypropylene individual brands fell 150 to 300 yuan / ton, polyethylene individual brands fell 200 to 500 yuan / ton, ABS individual brands fell 400 yuan / ton, polystyrene individual brands fell 200 yuan / ton . In late July, due to the drop in crude oil prices, the prices of pure benzene fell by RMB 100/t in various regions. PTA prices were also affected by the fall in the price of paraxylene and the lack of downstream demand, which fell by more than RMB 300/t. Propylene, epichlorohydrin and acrylic acid prices also fell sharply.
Petrochemical enterprises should strengthen control over operational risks The petrochemical market is showing a downward trend, and the operational risks brought to the petrochemical industry are self-evident. In particular, petrochemical companies are still using crude oil purchased at high prices in the previous stage, and they still have to endure the cost of high oil prices. However, the price of products has already fallen, and corporate profits will shrink even further. If the price of oil falls further, it will inevitably bring greater fluctuations to the petrochemical market, and petrochemical companies will face a more severe situation.
Experts believe that in this situation, companies must pay more attention to the market, improve market resilience, timely adjust the product structure, make the product sell the most appropriate price of the current period, and strive to gain.
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