At the Asian petrochemical industry conference held in Bangkok recently, participants generally expressed concern about the strong and sustainable development of the Asian economy under high oil price environment. The rapid expansion of petrochemical capacity in the Middle East and China, the huge pressure brought by high oil prices on the industry’s earnings, and the negative impact of the elimination of tariffs on the petrochemical industry have caused nearly 1,000 delegates to believe that the Asian petrochemical industry’s outlook is not optimistic and it will meet challenges. Asian countries must strengthen cooperation.
The focus of the meeting is whether the rapid expansion of Sinopec's capacity in the Middle East and China will have an impact on the profitability and operating rate of the Asian petrochemical industry in the coming years. As a petrochemical producer in China’s traditional petrochemical supply regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, China, concerns that products from the Middle East will affect its traditional market share in China, just as European producers fear that Saudi Polymers will enter the European market in the past few years. same.
According to SRI Consulting, Asia will add 14 million to 18 million tons of ethylene per year over the next 10 years, and will add 15 million to 22 million tons of ethylene per year in the Middle East. These new capacities are mainly aimed at the Chinese market. In the same period, a large amount of new production capacity was also built in China.
Analysts predict that the annual growth rate of ethylene production capacity in China will reach 16% in the next four years, and the growth rate may drop to 5.3% from 2010 to 2015. Currently, 7 to 9 ethylene plants of a world-scale are under construction or planning. As of the end of 2005, China's ethylene production capacity was 8 million tons/year. With the launch of a series of ethylene projects in the next few years, China's ethylene self-sufficiency rate will increase from the current 40% to 70% in 2009. It is predicted that by 2015, China's ethylene self-sufficiency rate will remain around 65% to 70%.
Another major factor affecting the future of the Asia Pacific petrochemical industry is the international oil price. Lee Young-il, chairman of the Korea Petrochemical Industry Association, pointed out that the world petrochemical industry is suffering from unpredictable international high oil prices. In order to cope with the impact of high oil prices on profitability, it is necessary to continuously improve competitiveness. Asian countries must strengthen cooperation and take measures to respond. The negative impact of high oil prices. The Asian region has opened its markets under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and expanded unilateral free trade negotiations within Asia. If we reduce the import tariffs outside Asia, it will inevitably lead to a decline in the profitability of Asian petrochemical companies. For example, the increase in the sales volume of products from the Middle East will inevitably reduce the profitability of petrochemical producers in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. In addition, members of the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference must also strengthen cooperation to meet the challenges of opening up the market and enable Asian petrochemical producers to achieve maximum mutual benefit.