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In March 2011, compared with the case of heavy truck companies grabbing resources and grabbing cars by March 2010, it was relatively flat. The market in March often plays a role in the past, so sales in March not only reflect the market conditions in the month, but also a precursor to the market trend in April and May. The heavy-duty truck market in March 2011 has not been started. As a result, most dealers do not hold much hope for the April and May boom, which makes them generally bearish on the heavy-duty market in the first half of 2011.
Heavy-duty truck dealers generally stated that because of psychological expectations in 2010, the market in 2011 is certainly not as good as in 2010 and is expected to decline by 10%-15%. Therefore, they are not surprised at the flatness of the first quarter of 2011, but did not expect the market. Start so late.
There will be three major effects
Despite this psychological expectation, the bleak performance has caused considerable pressure on heavy truck dealers. The bad market in January and February 2011 was normal and March was not normal. Some dealers said that the dull performance of the market in March 2011 may bring about three aspects.
The first is psychological pressure. The delay in the peak season makes dealers more pessimistic about future market trends. Most heavy-duty dealers believe that it is difficult to see the status of sales blowouts in the first half of the year. This expectation is intertwined with the expectations and perceptions of users and will have an important impact on the market trend in 2011.
In 2010, there was a situation of grabbing a car. In addition to the market demand, it also did not rule out the user's psychological factors in order to make the demand suddenly appear without any warning. However, after the Spring Festival in 2011, there were not many jobs, all kinds of costs rose, users could not earn money, and economic policies were tight. Under this kind of mentality, users did not dare to buy a car easily.
The second is sales pressure. After a historic breakthrough in the heavy-duty truck industry in 2010, the company's expectations for the market have risen unprecedentedly, and sales in 2011 have been very heavy. However, in 2011, the economy and market conditions are tight, and it is not easy to continue to achieve substantial growth on a relatively high basis.
The third is inventory pressure. In March 2010, there was no eruption in the market. As a result, many dealers began to reserve vehicles in October and November 2010. Who knows that the heavy-duty truck market has not been started in 2011, resulting in pressure on dealers with more reserves, and funds All occupied.
According to an industry source, Sinotruk’s inventory of cars reached 70,000 vehicles, which is expected to be on the channel network. In addition, Shaanxi Auto and Foton Auman also have about 20,000 inventory vehicles. With the largest number of cars in reserve, the pressure is greatest. In spite of this, the channel terminal did not make any obvious gains, nor did it hold large-scale promotions. There is no need to do too much promotion. At present, the scope of dealers' downgrade promotions is limited, and most of them are behaviors of individual dealers. Moreover, the number of designated vehicles and limited quantities is also small, and the impact is not great. The same is true from the monitoring data of the Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center. In February 2011, the price of commercial vehicles fell from high to low. Among them, the prices of medium-sized and heavy-duty trucks fell by 0.06% and 0.70% respectively from the previous month, and they were up 1.97% and 4.48% respectively, which were very small.
Need to pay attention to credit conditions
Among all the unfavorable factors, the most worrying thing is the continued tightening of monetary policy. With March 18, 2011, the Central Bank announced that since March 25, 2011, the reserve requirement ratio for all banks has been raised by 0.5%. At this point, the reserve ratio of large banks is 20%, and that of other banks is 18%. This is the sixth time since the Central Bank of China in October 2010 and the third time in 2011 that the deposit reserve ratio was raised. The market is expected to raise the deposit reserve ratio will freeze funds of about 460 billion yuan.
This news is not good for companies and distributors, especially in the heavy truck industry where the proportion of consumer credit is gradually increasing. Although some of the stronger dealers said they were basically unaffected, the car loan business is still doing well, but for some weaker dealers, their credit business has been affected more or less.
At present, bank funds are shrinking, and the approval of car loans is more stringent. As a result, there have been some impacts on the credit business. In the past, loans can be made and loans may not be available now. In the event that the line of credit is reduced, banks will generally protect “big players†(reputable and powerful dealers), and it is not easy for small households to get loans. There are also heavy-duty dealers who reported that they had previously been able to obtain loans from some microfinance companies and it is now difficult for the loan companies in the society to obtain loans. For truck users with insufficient funds, this will affect their demand for cars; for heavy truck dealers with weak capital chain, this will also make them in trouble.
From this perspective, it is not the worst time. The government will restrain inflation as the primary task of the current economy. If the follow-up deposit reserve ratio continues to increase and the credit limit continues to shrink, banks may not only further tighten their auto credit business due to the control of bad debt ratios and risk avoidance considerations. It will also have a series of impacts on project construction and real estate investment. At present, these impacts have not yet emerged, and the transfer of policy effectiveness also takes time. Therefore, the real test is in April and May.
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