International oil prices rise higher oil prices this weekend or up

Affected by geopolitical factors, international oil prices have continued to rise in the last two weeks. The main contract for crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) hit a new high in nearly four months last Friday and closed at $97.85/barrel. The highest intraday up to 98.25 US dollars / barrel, once again approaching one hundred yuan mark. Affected by higher international oil prices, the domestic refined oil prices may reach the conditions for upward adjustment this weekend. It is worth noting that the reporter learned yesterday from the Guangdong Plastics Exchange's Canton Plastics Index that the gradual rise in international oil prices has affected the prices of many industrial raw materials, from ethylene to PP, etc., all have rising trends, and then conductive impact to the PPI, the industry Product prices are under pressure.

Geopolitical factors push up oil prices

The recent rise in international oil prices was mainly influenced by geopolitical factors. Sources said that the Obama administration has determined that Syrian government forces use chemical weapons against the opposition militants and will therefore provide direct military support to the Syrian opposition. Although Syria is not an important oil-producing country, investors are concerned that the country’s civil war may have affected the supply of oil to neighboring neighboring countries.

Affected by geopolitical factors, NYMEX's July crude oil futures rose continuously for the last three trading days last week, reaching an intraday high of $98.25/barrel, the highest level since February 20 this year.

Some analysts believe that since the international oil price has been fluctuating drastically this year, there are funds that are provoking high oil prices by geopolitical factors. According to the latest data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the non-commercial positions held by speculative funds for the week ending June 11 accounted for obvious advantages.

Agency cuts crude oil demand forecast

"In fact, the current crude oil fundamentals do not support the sharp rise in international oil prices." Zhuo Chuangxin crude oil analyst Zhang Bin said.

The biggest bearish for crude oil prices currently lies in the slowdown in demand growth caused by sluggish global economic growth. Last week, global energy agencies lowered their forecast for crude oil demand. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report released last week said that the weak global economy will limit the increase in oil demand this year. The agency reduced its global oil demand growth forecast in 2013 by 5,000 barrels to 785,000 barrels per day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also earlier reduced the average global crude oil demand in 2013 by 20,000 barrels to 870,000 barrels, on the grounds that the global economic recovery was not as expected.

The direct consequence of the soaring international oil price is that the rate of change of the major imported crude oil varieties is continuously rising. According to Chuangchuang Information, as of last Friday, the major imported crude oil varieties rose by 1.2% from the previous price adjustment. By June 21st, the next price adjustment window will open. The current forecast price adjustment range is about 75 yuan/ton.

“But from the recent situation of domestic refined oil price adjustments, the fluctuations in the last few trading days are very important. At present, the driving force for the international oil price to rise is not enough. It is not yet predictable whether the future will fall.” Zhang Bin Indicated.

Guangsu Index rose 1%

Under the background of rising oil prices, prices of many domestic industrial raw materials began to rise. The Plastics Index released by the Guangdong Plastics Exchange yesterday showed that the plastics market has a tendency to rebound and the market is becoming increasingly active. Analysts from the Guangdong Plastics Exchange told the reporter that ethylene and PP, the refining chemical products, are raw materials for a number of industrial products. The plastic price trend will also have an impact on the final price of industrial finished products. As of June 13, Guangsu Index reported 987.62 points. , 1% higher than the end of May. Guangdong Plastics Exchange predicts that with the high fluctuations in international oil prices, prices of various chemical raw materials may increase further in the later period. Pressure on the ex-factory prices of industrial products.