Dongfeng shares: new housekeeper is expected to bring new changes

The share of Dongfeng Cummins's profit in Dongfeng shares has further increased. The Cummins Engine business contributed RMB 693 million, RMB 516 million and RMB 176 million to the company's profits in the ten years, eleven years, and the first half of the year, accounting for 121%, 111%, and 184% of the company's net profit attributable to the company.

The inflection point for the heavy truck industry is approaching, and Dongfeng Cummins will significantly increase its earnings next year. The main source of profit for Dongfeng Cummins is the C/L engine supporting Dongfeng medium and heavy trucks. We believe that the sales volume of heavy trucks in 2012 has reached the bottom of the next two years. With the support of end-of-life demand and the end of inventory clearance by dealers, it is pessimistic to assume that sales volume will increase by 16% this year compared to this year.

The introduction of new models for Zhengzhou Nissan will be long-term. It is expected that Zhengzhou Nissan will introduce new models of urban SUVs in 2014. The first model to be launched may be a joint-venture autonomous SUV, which is expected to be compact, with a reference price range of 8-15 million.

The light truck industry will also usher in a recovery. The low raw material prices will bring profitability. Similar to the heavy-duty truck industry, we expect there will be a big recovery in the industry next year. In the first half of next year, the prices of raw materials such as steel and rubber are expected to maintain their current 20% decline compared to this year. Static calculations of light truck gross margins will increase by 2-3 points.

The deputy general manager of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle was appointed as the general manager of Dongfeng. The new management is expected to enable the company to reduce costs and increase efficiency. It is expected that the company's fully diluted earnings per share in 2012, 2013 and 2014 will be 0.00, 0.11, and 0.17 yuan, respectively, which is optimistic about the elasticity of the performance brought by the growth of Dongfeng Cummins under the card industry bottoming out, and the possible improvement of management brought by the new management after taking office. In addition to reducing costs and increasing efficiency, coupled with the company's current risk-to-return ratio, the rating is upgraded to “buy”.