In early 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formulated the "Polysilicon Industry Access Standard", but the policy has not yet been introduced until today. The reason is that the standard refers to the advanced indicators of the international polysilicon industry, and stipulates that the newly-built polysilicon project must be 3,000 tons or more in size, and that by the end of 2011, it should eliminate the requirements for integrated power consumption of more than 200 kWh/kg of polysilicon production capacity. These regulations are currently not reached by many domestic enterprises, and naturally they have opposed them. Recently, Hong Hongling, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Union, also reminded that global polysilicon investment is hot, and Chinese companies should be careful to blindly expand production to cause excess capacity. It can be seen that the blind production of Chinese enterprises has had an inevitable impact on the polysilicon industry, and there are also many problems in the polysilicon industry.
Various factors have slowed down the growth of demand for polysilicon, but at the same time, the supply of polysilicon has been expanded on a large scale. According to statistics, the global polysilicon production in 2010 could reach 125,000 tons, of which polycrystalline silicon for solar energy is 97,000 tons, but in 2010, the demand for polysilicon for solar energy is 83,000 tons. By the end of 2010, the polysilicon used in solar energy will see an oversupply. After the supply shortage of polysilicon drops, the spot price will quickly move closer to long-term prices. Industry insiders expect that the polysilicon market price will drop by about 50% in 2009; since July 22, 2010, the polysilicon price in the domestic market has increased from 40,000 to 415,000 yuan/ton to 444 to 46 million yuan/ton, and supply has appeared. Tension trend. According to experts’ predictions, domestic silicon material prices are expected to further increase to RMB 500,000/tonne (62.5$/kg) in the short term. By the end of 2010, the spot price will be basically the same as the long price, which is about 60 US dollars/kg. Some analysts even expect the polysilicon price to return to 40 US dollars/kg.
Problems in China's polysilicon industry 1. Blindly low-level expansion The severe fairy tale of a rich overnight photovoltaic power generation has attracted the attention of many people in different backgrounds and industries in China. The profitable polysilicon link naturally cannot escape the strong driving profitability investment. In people's eyes, a lot of money is invested in polysilicon production. Among the many companies that have entered the field of polysilicon production, include traditional energy and energy equipment companies, such as Dongfang Electric, Leshan Power, and Qijiang Hydropower; photovoltaic downstream companies, such as Jiangxi Solar, Jiangsu Zhongneng, and other photovoltaic cell components and system integration manufacturers; Also includes non-energy companies. In general, the first two companies involved in this industry are mostly considering the adjustment of the overall layout or building a complete industrial chain. They have certain planning and strategic considerations; while non-energy companies enter the market, they pay more attention to the profits and new Judgment of the direction of development of the energy industry, lack of photovoltaic industry background. The massive investment from different sources has made repeated construction in some regions and blind expansion of low levels a necessity.
2. The production process used is still immature. Many of the polysilicon projects launched at home are mostly modified Siemens. The power consumption of 1 kg of products is more than 300 kWh, and the cost price is about 450 yuan/kg; while the cost of international manufacturers is 30 US dollars/ Kg or less. According to the polysilicon production cycle, polysilicon projects put into operation at the end of 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 can reach 80% after 2 years. When domestic companies are fully productive on the day when polysilicon profits are over, domestic companies will again face a competitive market that wins with quality and price. Based on the above analysis, by the end of 2010, the polysilicon market price is likely to fall below the current production costs of Chinese companies. Therefore, if the enterprise technology does not upgrade, does not reduce the production cost of the product, does not strive to increase the conversion efficiency, then in the future competition will be ruthlessly eliminated.
Other projects use metallurgical methods to produce polysilicon. The metallurgical method has the advantages of low cost, short construction period, and no chemical pollution. However, so far, the domestic production of polysilicon by metallurgical methods is still in the middle of scientific research and small-scale experiments, and the products still do not meet the quality requirements of solar grade silicon, the stability is also poor, the attenuation during use is severe, and if metallurgical The method to achieve mass production, taking into account the removal of impurities such as boron, the investment required is better than the improved Siemens method.
After nearly 10 years of development, the domestic improved Siemens process has already had the ability to scale production. Once its technology matures and the cost gradually decreases, there is still much room for survival in the metallurgical law. We are not aware of this.
3. There are hidden dangers in safe production and emissions. How to deal with the exhaust gas of polysilicon is one of the core technologies of polysilicon. At present, the vast majority of polysilicon production companies in the world use closed-loop modified Siemens method to produce polysilicon. This technology can basically meet the requirements of environmental protection. However, this technology is still a blank field in China. China's polysilicon production is not only the technology independently developed by Luoyang Zhonggao Hi-Tech Co., Ltd., but most other countries are directly or indirectly introducing polysilicon purification technology from Russia, such as CSG, Jiangsu Zhongneng, etc., or they can be improved on the basis of Russian technology. Such as Shin Kong Silicon, Dongfang Electric, etc., but these technologies in the scale of production, closed-loop production, product energy consumption compared with the international advanced technology there is still a certain gap. At present, most of the domestic polysilicon production companies deal with the by-product silicon tetrachloride by selling it to downstream chemical plants that require silicon tetrachloride as the raw material. However, the growth rate of silicon tetrachloride enterprises is far behind the growth rate of polysilicon companies. If it can't effectively handle the excess silicon tetrachloride, polysilicon companies will be severely punished. In addition, there are a large number of flammable and explosive gases in the production process of polysilicon. Once the management of the company is poor, it will cause the leakage of toxic gases and an explosion. This has also laid a security risk for many immature companies.
Polysilicon companies need to upgrade their industrial structure while building and expanding their production capacity. Pay attention to the following points:
1. Technology first, increase research and development of various polysilicon preparation technologies There are two main uses of polysilicon products: one for the preparation of solar cells and the other for integrated circuits. Two kinds of applications have different performance parameters for polysilicon products. The purity requirement of electronic grade polysilicon reaches 9N~11N. However, under the premise of guaranteeing photoelectric conversion efficiency and lifespan, solar grade batteries are not as high as polysilicon purity requirements. , roughly around 6N~7N. Different parameters of the standard determine the different methods of polysilicon production methods are also different, electronic-grade polysilicon is generally used high-cost chemical method, mainly modified Siemens method; and solar grade polysilicon can use some physical methods to reduce production costs. At present, for the preparation of solar grade polysilicon, in addition to the improved Siemens method, there are also metallurgical methods, silane methods and fluidized bed methods.
The gap between China and foreign countries is mainly in the polysilicon refining technology. The improved Siemens law in foreign countries has matured, but it has been monopolized by several large companies and has imposed a technical blockade on China. Therefore, we should concentrate scientific and technological resources, jointly research and develop China's polysilicon industry's overall layout, technical routes, process methods, environmental protection and comprehensive utilization programs. In addition to obtaining the mature Siemens process for the production of polysilicon, intensify efforts on the fluidized bed method, The development and research of polysilicon production processes such as metallurgical processes are aimed at different markets and form a technological pattern in which various process technologies compete with each other and coordinate the development of appropriate targets.
2.Strengthen strategic cooperation with downstream battery manufacturers The polysilicon project is a risky project with huge investment, complicated process, long construction period, and high environmental accidents. It must be carefully designed, carefully constructed, and strictly managed before it can be successful. Due to these particularities, especially technological risks, it is necessary to ensure adequate funding for the funding of polysilicon projects. To circumvent market risks, polysilicon manufacturers can strengthen cooperation with downstream industrial chain manufacturers by means of joint ventures, equity participation, and signing long-term supply contracts.
3. Research and development of independent innovation by enterprises In order to limit the blind expansion of polysilicon enterprises, research on polysilicon key technologies, comprehensive utilization and environmental protection needs to be conducted through the establishment of corporate R&D centers or cooperation with universities and scientific research institutes. Investment in R&D, and a way out of China's self-development of new processes, new technologies, and new equipment to reduce production costs, making China's polysilicon manufacturing technology meet or exceed the international advanced level, will take the initiative in the fierce market competition that may come .
4. Sino-foreign joint ventures to build polysilicon plants The construction of polysilicon plants requires advanced technology and substantial funds. In recent years, there have been more and more cooperation and cooperation projects between countries and companies, gradually becoming a trend in the development of the world silicon material industry. In addition, according to the needs of the polysilicon market, the state should encourage and foster Chinese-foreign joint ventures to build polysilicon plants. The benefits of the two include sharing huge investment costs, reducing domestic capital pressure and investment risks, and second, sharing advanced technological achievements and rapidly shortening China's silicon material industry and international standards. The third is to use the brand of international big companies to enter the international market, so that it has strong competitiveness.
Restricting the high energy consumption and high pollution of small businesses and small projects is conducive to the healthy development of the industry Although solar photovoltaic is a new energy source, the production process of raw material polysilicon is high energy consumption and high pollution. It is understood that the production of polysilicon will produce highly toxic contaminants such as silicon tetrachloride. At the same time, the overall power consumption from the production of industrial silicon to solar cells will be about 2.2 million kWh/MW. And 98% of China's solar cells are used for export, which is equivalent to a large amount of energy that is in short supply.
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