The power battery industry gradually bid farewell to "small scattered"

The power battery is the heart of new energy vehicles. The cost of batteries accounts for 40% to 60% of the total production cost of new energy passenger cars. Its technological progress plays a key role in the development of the entire electric vehicle. With the increasing concentration of the power battery industry and the gradual maturity of the technology route, the future power battery will develop toward a safer, longer life, and faster charging speed.

Recently, Galaxy Securities released data show that in 2016, the market concentration of power batteries has further increased. BYD, CATL, Waterma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Tianjin Lishen, the total market share of the five major power battery companies is close to 70%. Experts said that with the continuous improvement of the concentration of the power battery industry, it will effectively improve the market's small, scattered and chaotic situation, and the research and development capabilities and market competitiveness of large enterprises will be strengthened, thus accelerating the pace of power battery improvement and better supporting. The development of the electric vehicle industry.

Market pattern changes

"At present, the problems faced by China's lithium battery industry are mainly due to the low concentration, lack of technology accumulation and innovation, resulting in serious dispersion of resources and disorderly competition in the market." Secretary General of Power Battery Application Branch of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association Zhang Rain said frankly that this makes China's lithium battery industry always big and not strong, unable to optimize resource allocation, form a standardized and orderly market structure, and can not form a synergy when competing with the outside.

However, in the past year, from the perspective of the industry brand competition pattern, both the fast charging field and the slow charging field have shown a situation in which the brand concentration has further increased. The data shows that the total market share of the top five power battery companies has reached nearly 70%. Among them, the market for lithium iron phosphate batteries is more concentrated, with the top four occupying 84% of the market and the top four of ternary batteries accounting for 60%.

Behind the increase in concentration is the substantial growth of the entire market. The reporter learned that in 2016, the power battery shipments reached 27.8GWh, an increase of nearly 80%. Among them, the proportion of passenger cars, passenger cars and logistics vehicles accounted for 56%, 32% and 12% respectively, passenger cars are still the largest application market, but the proportion of passenger cars is rapidly increasing. In terms of battery type, due to its dominant position in the passenger car field, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery is still as high as 70%. The high energy density ternary battery has obvious advantages in the field of passenger cars and logistics vehicles, with shipments of nearly 6GWh. The penetration rate is about 20%.

"There is such a change, in the final analysis, the invisible hand of the market is playing a role." Song Han, vice president of marketing of Weihong Power Systems Co., Ltd., told the Economic Daily reporter that under the stimulus of the policy, a large amount of capital entered the power battery industry. It has indeed contributed to the initial development of the industry. However, the small, scattered and chaotic brand structure is difficult to meet the real needs of end customers. A few leading companies with core technology advantages and brand advantages can better obtain the trust and recognition of customers and gain more market share.

In the past two years, the power lithium battery market has become the largest engine for the rapid growth of the global lithium battery market. According to China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, China has become the most active region for lithium battery development in the world. In 2016, China's lithium battery market was about 111.5 billion yuan, and the demand for power lithium batteries was 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.8%. The demand for power batteries in 2020 will reach five times that of 2015.

Subsidy subsided and forced to transform

At the end of 2016, the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy New Deal, which has received much attention from the industry, was officially released. The New Deal has raised the subsidy threshold for new energy vehicles and established a punishment mechanism, and the amount of subsidies has declined. That is, the local financial subsidies must not exceed 50% of the central government bicycle subsidies; except for fuel cell vehicles , various models from 2019 to 2020 The central and local subsidy standards and caps are 20% off the current standard.

Some people believe that under the influence of subsidies, the power battery market will see a sharp decline in 2017. For example, in the bus market with the most extensive use of power batteries, the subsidies for pure electric buses from 8 meters to 10 meters have dropped from the highest of 400,000 yuan to a maximum of 200,000 yuan, a drop of 50%. The huge subsidy decline may bring down the sales of electric buses, which will lead to a slowdown in the growth of the power battery market.

"It is undeniable that with the decline of subsidies, it will have a negative impact on the power battery market, but it is not necessarily that the market will see a sharp decline." Song Han said that the entire new energy vehicle industry chain actively responded to challenges through product technology. Upgrade, optimize production management, optimize supply chain and other methods to control product costs and provide more competitive products for end customers.

Qin Xingcai, president of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd. believes that the pressure brought by subsidies to retreat is indeed very large, but an industry cannot rely solely on state subsidies. At present, the power battery industry is in a stage of rapid expansion, and the industry will be “shuffled” in the next stage.

"High and fast" into a future trend

Whether the gas-fired battery companies can keep up with the policy of declining the policy and stand out in the new round of industry reshuffle, the key lies in whether it can further reduce the cost while improving battery safety, life and energy efficiency.

"The market competition in the power battery industry will further intensify, low-end repetitive capacity will be eliminated, and high-quality enterprises will be in an increasingly favorable position in the future market competition." Song Han said that according to the latest subsidy policy after adjustment, In the next five years, subsidies will gradually decline, which will greatly affect customers' purchasing decisions. Enterprises with technological advantages, brand advantages, and scale advantages are superior to other companies in terms of product performance, customer reputation, and cost sharing. It is easier to obtain customer trust and obtain orders.

At present, the lithium battery industry has many technical routes. In order to truly realize the market-oriented promotion of new energy vehicles, consumers can use new energy vehicles more confidently and conveniently, and choose and develop "high-safety, fast-charge, long-life" battery technology. It is an inevitable trend. First of all, security is a top priority for batteries. Secondly, the battery needs to have the ability to fast charge to meet the needs of consumer mobility. Long life is the basic principle of car design, which also ensures the flow of used vehicles.

It is worth noting that, from the technical route point of view, the current market has shown that the enterprises that insist on slow-filling routes gradually begin to penetrate into the fast-filling route. From some recent corporate announcements, many slow-charge routes can be seen. Representative companies have introduced fast charge products.

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